Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Goal Time(s)

After previewing the course yesterday and again this morning, I think I'm ready to make some rough estimates and performance predictions.

The Swim
The Busselton Jetty is almost 2 kilometers long and looking out to the end of it from the shore makes you realize just how far I've got to swim on Sunday. I've been in the water a few times out here, and thus far, I haven't bothered with a wetsuit. The temperature's a solid, comfortable 70-degrees and current's not an issue unless the wind's blowing. The water's mostly clear and relatively shallow - it's seems to be between 5 and 10 feet deep no matter how far from the beach you swim - making this open water swim feel a lot more like a pool swim.

I should be a bit faster with the wetsuit on (go buoyancy, go!) and I'll be aiming for between 50 and 53 minutes.

The Ride
Friends of mine hoping for scorched earth on the bike leg may be disappointed; in two pre-rides of the course, I've barely been able to maintain a 20 mile-per-hour average. I think it's the cross-wind. If I can hold that pace for the full 112 miles, I'm looking at a 5h36 split on the bike, though I'd factor in +/- ten minutes. As mentioned before, there are three laps of the course, each with four 180-degree turn-arounds. The longest straightaway's on Tuart Drive - probably five or eight miles each way. The final five miles of each lap won't be pleasant unless the wind dies down - they're exposed and going in the exact wrong direction.

The Run
This is still my biggest question-mark. The course itself is incredibly flat and follows the coastline perfectly. There are four out-and-back laps on a paved path. If it's not super hot or super windy, I think I can finish the marathon leg in under 4 hours.

Total Time
Barring any unforeseen issues (mechanical or biological), I'm pretty sure I can finish this race in under 11 hours - probably closer to 10h30. Worst case (1hr swim, 6hr bike, 4.5hr run) would bring me in at 11h30. Absolute best case (.75hr swim, 5.25hr bike, 3.5hr run) would bring me in at 9h30 (which would be ridiculously awesome, but probably isn't likely).

We'll find out on Sunday, won't we?